Given the trends I see and the broader context, where is America headed? Of course no one knows how things will play out, but as I try to connect the dots from the trends I see, I have a number of predictions. Here’s what I think will happen in the coming years if we don’t make changes:

Little legislation will be passed at the federal level until 2017. The Republican party has won control of the Senate to complement its control of the House and the Supreme Court. Republicans sit in governors’ mansions across the country and control many state legislatures.

Republicans may attempt to pass bills, but either Democrats in the Senate will filibuster them or the President will veto them.

Republicans lack the votes to pass laws. Gridlock will continue. If anything does pass, it will be due to the Republicans deciding it will help their efforts in the 2016 congressional and presidential elections to show some progress. But I don’t think anything valuable for the American people will be accomplished by the federal government—Republicans don’t benefit from this, and as was clearly shown by the recent election, citizens will blame the president or simply not vote due to their disgust with inactivity (though passionate Republican voters will make it to the polls). So, gridlock will continue through 2017, perhaps supplemented by some crises with the budget or debt ceiling.

In 2016 the Republicans will win the White House. There’s no incumbent Democrat running, and Hillary will mobilize too many foes and not enough friends—and she’s eight years older than the last time she was a candidate. Republicans control the key states, and their financial advantage will carry the day. They’ll keep their majorities in both houses of Congress.

From 2016 through 2024 Republicans will lead the country. Democrats may be able to stop them in the Senate, but they are not as organized and coordinated as Republicans, and not as passionate. If there are wars, terrorist concerns (real or fabricated), or other national security issues, Democrats will not block Republican action. The nation will move dramatically to the right on all major issues:  economic, social, environmental, etc.

And then there is the Supreme Court. George W. Bush was extremely effective and successful in achieving many parts of his agenda. The Supreme Court is an ongoing testament to his effectiveness and it’s a powerful legacy of his work, though the impact of the Iraq and Afghan wars combined with the financial crisis have clearly done more to shape the trajectory of the country and will through the next two decades. Roberts and Alito have helped to steer the court to the right and they will continue to do so for two or three decades. If Ginsburg retires before 2017 she will either not be replaced or will be replaced with a moderate—the Republican-controlled Senate will simply refuse to confirm anyone remotely liberal. If Ginsburg retires after 2017, the Republican president and Senate will replace her with another Roberts / Alito kindred spirit, and the court will have a solid majority of 5 arch-conservatives. A similar dynamic will occur to replace moderately conservative Kennedy, the current swing vote who occasionally frustrates his conservative colleagues and sides with the four liberal justices. If he retires after 2017, this will no longer be a concern for conservatives, and there will be six conservative justices. When Scalia eventually retires, he will be replaced by a younger intellectual peer to preserve his conservative vote, and the same will be true of Thomas. Both may retire between 2017 and 2020, though it’s likely they will have until 2024 to make this decision and safely ensure that their legal theories will be preserved and continued by their successors.

The presidency, Congress, and the Supreme Court, will all be in Republican control starting in 2016 for at least the next eight years. After that? It’s tough to say, though it seems that this process would only strengthen the other underlying forces that have cultivated and enabled this political shift.

The impact on the main issues affecting our nation are tough to predict, but the directions seem clear:

• Immigration: much harsher stance against immigrants, particularly poor ones
• Guns: much more permissive laws and protection of the right to bear arms in most (all?) cases
• Environment: little or no support for regulation of industry or the battle against climate change
• Taxation: lower taxes on corporations and the wealthy
• Government services: reduced services, particularly for the poor and minorities
• Military spending: preserved or expanded
• War: aggressive policies with conflict to preserve access to oil and justify ongoing expenditures

I hope I am wrong about many or all of these predictions. Maybe I’m simply too pessimistic–my wife calls me “Chicken Little,” always worrying that the sky is falling. But this is what I see in my crystal ball unless something significant and unexpected happens.