Even the best projections from previous eras have been upended by the unexpected. What kinds of unexpected factors might impede or accelerate these trends, or lead us to very different outcomes?

U.S. default
The U.S. national debt continues to grow, though the Obama administration has been quite effective in reducing the rate of growth since the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008. With a Republican administration uninterested in preserving the services of the government or its effective functioning, and with the prospect of lower taxes and increased military spending, the potential for default starts to become real in the 2020s. As the debt grows over time, the annual interest payments increase and the economics become non-linear; the U.S. economy enters a death spiral it cannot escape.

What would be the impact of a U.S. default?

Who knows? It’s very difficult to predict and unimaginable for many of us. But it won’t be good for most citizens.

Increasingly severe weather due to new patterns resulting from climate change
Superstorm Sandy. Artic vortex. California drought. These are new phenomena that are dramatic, significant, deadly, and expensive. As America experiences more extreme weather in the coming decades, the costs of repair and disaster relief will skyrocket, as will the perturbation to the economy from these storms. Will these strain an already thin government safety net and infrastructure? Will we have more Katrinas? Effective response requires an effective government. Will we have one?

War.
The axis of evil. Terrorist threats. The re-emergence of Russia. The specter of China. The Middle East. Are any of these actual security threats to the U.S.? Under a Republican administration, the country will be convinced that they all are. While the exact theaters of operation are tough to predict, there are many to choose from. How big do they grow and what do they become?

Terrorism—real and perceived.
Will there be another terrorist attack on American soil? Will they occur in other countries that make us increasingly fearful of one on American soil? If something happens, how will a post 9/11 America react, particularly with a solidly Republican leadership infrastructure? Would a terrorist attack trigger a monstrous response, like an allergic reaction by a body whose antibodies have been on alert and are suddenly triggered? Will we repeat Iraq and Afghanistan?

My biggest long-term fear: secession.
While I’m concerned about the overall trajectory of the U.S., and nervously monitoring the various unexpected factors and our potential reactions to them, the long-term threat that worries me most is secession.

Can America remain in one piece over the coming decades? If the nation turns firmly to the right, will everyone go together? Or has the time come for us to recognize that we’ve grown apart, that our differences in beliefs, philosophies, and world views have become so significant that we no longer see ourselves as one nation, one people? This has been brewing for many years. If change comes to America, real change, what will happen?

It seems unfathomable. How would the economy work? If the Pacific states and the New England states were one country (the “blue” country) and the southern and central states were another (the “red” country), how would goods from Asia be transported across the 48 states? Would there be two countries or three (“blue west”, “blue east”, and “red”)? Or more—once the concept of secession becomes real, who knows what happens? Independent Texas? California split into two countries? Do some of the northern “blue” states join Canada?

And what if it’s not peaceful? Civil War II? In a modern country with advanced military forces and nuclear weapons? Surely this is impossible! Or is it?

Sources of hope or inspiration: a liberal counter-response, or the rise of the spirit of the American people?
In the midst of the current conservative wave rolling across the country, a few interesting and hopeful things have happened. Two women have been appointed to the Supreme Court, one of them Hispanic. Gay marriage is becoming legal in many states. Why are these happening and how? Both are a bit of a mystery to me—I think the justices were appointed while Democrats still had a majority in the Senate, and Republicans had to choose where and how to use their filibuster power. I don’t understand how gay marriage is rolling across the country in spite of Republican governors and state legislatures in many states. So perhaps these are examples of hope. And the underlying demographics are a transformational force on their own:  the Hispanic population of the country is growing faster than the conservative white population, and eventually this will start to matter in the government as well.

There may also be a liberal reaction to the conservative transformation of the country, in part because of the basic ideas themselves. Global warming is happening, and its effects will become increasingly apparent. The right for all citizens to vote is increasingly assumed, and therefore difficult to consistently suppress. Science is providing increasingly clear evidence of the age of the Earth and the universe and mankind’s role in it. The data about America’s diminishing stature in the world and our relative decline in quality of life compared with other developed countries is becoming increasingly clear and widespread. Will these matter? Organizations (including societies) large and small usually make changes only once the crisis comes, when the challenge of changing is finally outweighed by the pain of the status quo. Maybe this will happen?

The path for the next ten years seems clear. What happens after 2024, and what unexpected events will intervene? Will the American people rise up and lead their country in a new direction? I’ve always thought I might live until 2050, so hopefully I’ll get to watch it all play out. It should be an interesting ride, though I’ll definitely need that seat belt.