When I think about the path forward, my starting point is our current trajectory: what are the underlying trends that shape our momentum into the coming years? I think there are several that lay the groundwork for what lies ahead.
Redistricting, gerrymandering, and suppression of democratic voters
The modern Republican party has transformed politics and elections and is accelerating and deepening its work to seize and enshrine its control of American democracy. This effort was underway in the 1990s and 2000s, but the election of Barack Obama and the resulting emergence of the Tea Party catalyzed change. The election in 2010 and the associated wave of Republican control of state legislatures enabled redistricting and gerrymandering to occur all across the country. As a result, Republican congressional seats are safe and solidly red—the only threat to a Republican representative is a conservative challenger. Regardless of American demographic changes and political attitudes among democrats and independents in the coming years, Republican control of the House will not change.
Ongoing efforts to suppress the votes of black, Latino, and poor voters has been dramatic and widespread and will accelerate in the coming years. Support from both the Supreme Court and Congress has paved the way for these policies, and they have been implemented with impressive but unsurprising speed in many states, primarily in the south. These policies will all support Republican electoral success.
Money in politics
With the Citizens United case and subsequent fundraising activities, elections have become dramatically more expensive and the dominant role of money has been established. The lack of transparency breeds corruption, as would be expected, and the influence of individual voters dwindles compared with the awesome power of large-scale fundraising. Modern American democracy has become the clash of the titans—massive funders on each side compete for control of the government and the country while ordinary citizens look up from below to watch their fate be decided just as the serfs in centuries long passed watched kings determine the destiny of all.
The unprecedented politicization of the Supreme Court
The Supreme Court has always been a political entity. From its first decision, the court demonstrated the simple reality that its members are people and that they exist inside of a political system. Politics is sometimes defined as “war by other means,” and this applies to the Supreme Court as well.
However, in the mid 1900s there were several examples of justices who ended up with very different perspectives and beliefs than those expected by the presidents who appointed them. Eisenhower is famously quoted as saying, “I made two big mistakes in my presidency, and they are both sitting on the Supreme Court.” David Souter was a similar mistake later in the century.
No longer. Just as Republican politics have become more effective, efficient, and polarized, their approach to the Supreme Court has been transformed. Justices are selected specifically based on their beliefs and sufficiently vetted in advance so the chances of unpredictable outcomes are very low. This is different from the past. Many Americans don’t realize it, but we’re living in a new world. Selection to the Supreme Court is not based on “finding the smartest, fairest judges”—in reality it never was, but now the political underpinnings of the process are clearer and more potent than ever.
With the political transformation shaping the country and pushing it significantly to the right, the court will shift this way as well. If a Republican is elected president in 2016 and re-elected in 2020, the shift will be quick. Several justices are over 75 and it’s likely at least three will retire in the next 10 years—including one liberal and one moderate conservative. Extremely conservative replacements for these justices will yield a 6-3 conservative majority, which will change the face of American law—and society—for decades to come. If a democrat is elected, the process and outcome will be uncertain and complex. Republicans have demonstrated their dedication and effectiveness in achieving their desired outcomes, and with a majority in the Senate they can frustrate the efforts of a Democratic president to appoint a liberal nominee. Perhaps a trade will be made, with a liberal and conservative both appointed—or perhaps this will lead to a constitutional crisis. But either way the gravity of the issue is clear: the days of a 5-4 court where the swing vote is somewhat moderate will soon be over. And a strong conservative shift is coming.
Information and knowledge
Fox News is shaping the nation. Just as national propaganda machines from governments in the Second World War defined reality for citizens and soldiers, Fox and other conservative media sources mold the world views and philosophies of half of the United States today. It’s a tremendous achievement, a long-term strategic approach for influencing, shaping, and eventually undermining American democracy. Entire segments of the country have learned to believe facts that are simply false and systems of belief that do not work. The scientific method, statistics, logic, and critical thinking are simply rejected, which creates a challenge for economy and government in the Internet age. But just as propaganda in the last century enabled governments to emerge and gain power through democratic means, the world views being crafted by conservative media sources are laying the groundwork for electoral success for the Republican party in the years and decades ahead.
The virtuous cycle of obstructionism and government ineffectiveness
Since the election of Barack Obama the Republican party has executed an intentional and effective strategy of total obstruction. One of the primary aims of this effort has been to make government at the federal level completely ineffective. In part this is to prevent Obama from succeeding in making the kind of change he has sought. But more broadly it is designed to convince the American public that government is filled with waste, fraud, abuse, and inefficiency, and that it therefore should be reduced as much as possible and funded as little as possible. As Grover Norquist has famously said, the goal is to shrink the government until it is small enough to be drowned in a bathtub.
The strategy is working.
An entire generation of Americans is growing up in a world where Congress has simply never functioned, where effective governance does not exist. “Ineffective government” has been transformed from a cliché to a reality as the result of a strategy based on a virtuous cycle: government is made to be inefficient and ineffective, it doesn’t deliver results for its citizens, citizens object to this and push to cut taxes, taxes are cut which reduces funding for government, government is unable to perform efficiently or effectively, and the cycle continues. It will be very difficult indeed for government to convince voters that it can work, since growing numbers of citizens have literally never experienced it in their lives. The Republicans are achieving their goals and will continue to do so in the coming years.